With the U.S. economy having contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 and recession fears mounting, workers seeking greener pastures face increasingly treacherous terrain. The once-booming job market that encouraged career mobility is shifting rapidly as businesses adopt defensive postures amid tariff-induced uncertainty.
“It feels like the Wild, Wild West every time you open the news,” said Renata Kero, a 45-year-old freelance journalist from Cold Spring, N.Y. “I feel a very real sense of instability and volatility, like who knows what economic pitfalls await us.”
The economic climate has deteriorated sharply since President Trump’s April announcement of sweeping tariffs that raised duties on Chinese goods to 145% and imposed 10% taxes on nearly everything the United States imports. Though he later paused many country-specific tariffs for 90 days to allow for negotiations, the damage to business confidence appears substantial.
Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 45% in the next 12 months, while a Reuters poll found that 69% of CEOs expect a recession, with over half predicting it will hit this year. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell in April to its lowest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
For job seekers, the implications are stark. Companies that once competed aggressively for talent are now pulling back on hiring plans, with many adopting what Brian Bethune, economics professor at Boston College, calls “labor hoarding” — keeping current employees despite uncertainty while freezing new hires.
“This is a situation where the air in the balloon is slowly dissipating out,” Bethune told Reuters. The April jobs report released last week showed nonfarm payrolls increased by just 130,000, significantly down from March’s 228,000 gain.
Major corporations are already feeling the pinch. Airlines have withdrawn their 2025 financial forecasts citing uncertainty over nonessential travel spending. General Motors cut its 2025 profit outlook and projected a $4-$5 billion hit from tariffs.
For workers contemplating a job change, the calculus has fundamentally changed. The traditional advice to seek better opportunities elsewhere now carries heightened risk, as new hires often face “last in, first out” vulnerability during downturns.
“When businesses see weakening in their sales, and if they start laying off workers, then we’re done,” warned Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Consumer spending, which grew at just 1.8% in the first quarter compared to more than double that rate in late 2024, suggests the economic slowdown is already impacting household decisions.
Business owners echo this sentiment. TJ Semanchin, who runs Wonderstate Coffee in Wisconsin, has put expansion plans on hold. “The climate we’re in definitely has me in a more defensive posture,” Semanchin said. When businesses and consumers both retreat to defensive positions, economic contraction typically follows.
The federal government itself has contributed to job market uncertainty, cutting 4,000 positions in March and another 11,000 in February, according to Labor Department figures.
Even companies that aren’t laying off are becoming more selective about new hires. Recruiters report that hiring processes are lengthening as companies require more approvals before bringing on new staff, particularly for higher-paying positions.
Economic uncertainty tends to benefit established employees with institutional knowledge, while disadvantaging job-hoppers who may find fewer opportunities and greater competition in the months ahead. Many employers are reducing hours before resorting to layoffs, another warning sign for those considering a job change.
For now, employment experts advise workers to prioritize job security over advancement unless the new opportunity offers significantly greater stability. Those determined to switch should thoroughly research prospective employers’ financial health and market positioning before making a move.
As one CEO told CNBC in their recent survey, “Without faith that our government knows what it is doing, it is impossible for businesses to thrive.” For job seekers navigating this uncertain landscape, that lack of faith may be the most compelling reason to stay put.