Behind the “Don’t Touch!” Post-it notes plastered on office refrigerator containers lies an economic indicator worth noting: More workers are bringing lunch from home, leaving restaurants that expected a post-pandemic boom struggling to fill seats.
Despite the return of millions to office buildings across the country, lunchtime foot traffic to fast-casual restaurants dropped nearly 8% in the first quarter compared to last year, according to data from market-research firm Black Box Intelligence. Even quick-service restaurants saw traffic decline by more than 4% in the same period.
“We’re still not back at foot traffic levels that approach 2019,” said a restaurant industry representative, expressing concern about how new economic challenges, including potential tariffs and recession fears, might further impact these establishments.
For many workers, the math is simple. A recent LinkedIn poll showed 71% of about 4,250 respondents had resolved to bring lunch from home more often. With dining out costing an average of $11 per meal compared to roughly $6.30 for home-prepared options according to a financial analysis cited in Making Sense of Cents, the annual savings can approach thousands of dollars.
Robert Johnsen, a mechanical design engineer in southern California, has embraced this trend with help from his wife, who packs leftover meals prepared by their chef son. Though he admits to occasionally forgetting his packed lunch in the refrigerator while still half-asleep in the morning.
Restaurants aren’t surrendering the lunch crowd without a fight. Business districts across the country are deploying creative strategies to lure workers away from their tupperware. In downtown Boston, High Street Place Food Hall has introduced watch parties for sporting events and online ordering systems to help customers avoid lunch rush lines. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, where office occupancy hovers around 43%, the Downtown SF Partnership has been actively promoting performances and other events to increase foot traffic.
The struggle highlights broader challenges facing the restaurant industry. Several major chains declared bankruptcy last year, including Red Lobster, the nation’s largest seafood restaurant chain, Tex-Mex restaurant Tijuana Flats, and Mediterranean eatery Roti.
Still, the National Restaurant Association projects industry sales could exceed $1.1 trillion in 2024, pointing to continued consumer interest in dining experiences despite economic challenges. The organization notes that 9 in 10 adults say they enjoy going to restaurants, particularly for meals with flavors difficult to replicate at home.
For those committed to bringing lunch, monotony remains the primary challenge. “I’m not trying to eat this spaghetti three days in a row,” said Valerie Myers, a communications professional in Richmond, Va. Her solution? Alternating leftovers so she isn’t eating dinner repeats for lunch the next day.
Some workers also note that bringing lunch from home means missing valuable social connections with colleagues. In a time when many feel increasingly isolated, particularly those in hybrid work arrangements, the communal aspect of going out for lunch offers benefits beyond the food itself.
As this economic indicator continues to unfold, both workers’ wallets and restaurant industry forecasts hang in the balance. The humble packed lunch, it seems, carries more weight than just calories.