Online spending across U.S. retailers is projected to surge to $23.8 billion during Amazon’s extended 96-hour Prime Day event running July 8 through 11, according to Adobe Analytics forecasts released Monday, representing a dramatic 28.4 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
The four-day shopping event marks a significant expansion from Amazon’s traditional 48-hour format, as the e-commerce giant doubles the length of its signature sales promotion while competitors including Walmart and Target launch their own concurrent discount campaigns. Last year’s two-day Prime Day generated $14.2 billion in online sales across all U.S. retailers.
“This is equivalent to two Black Fridays,” Adobe noted in its forecast, highlighting how budget-conscious consumers are adjusting their shopping behavior by using generative artificial intelligence to locate deals and beginning back-to-school purchases earlier than in previous years. The dramatic growth projection comes as global trade uncertainties, driven by President Trump’s unpredictable tariff rollout, have created consumer confidence challenges ahead of the July 9 deadline for countries to negotiate trade agreements with the United States.
Clothing retailers are expected to offer the steepest discounts during the event, with markdowns reaching 24 percent compared to 20 percent during last year’s Prime Day, according to Adobe Analytics data. Electronics discounts are forecast to decrease slightly to 22 percent from higher levels seen in 2024. The research firm anticipates strong sales growth in back-to-school categories, including backpacks, lunchboxes, and college essentials such as headphones and computers.
Consumer payment patterns are also evolving during major shopping events. Buy Now Pay Later services are expected to account for 8 percent of overall online spending during Prime Day, up from 7.6 percent last year. This trend reflects consumers seeking more flexible payment options amid persistent economic pressures.
Adobe’s projections draw from an extensive analysis of one trillion visits to U.S. retail e-commerce sites, encompassing 100 million individual products across 18 different categories. The company’s analytics platform is utilized by more than 85 percent of the top 100 internet retailers in the United States to track and optimize online shopping experiences.
The extended Prime Day format allows shoppers more time to take advantage of steep discounts across higher-ticket items including electronics, sporting goods, and appliances, while also providing opportunities to secure more affordable alternatives in categories like home and garden products or groceries. Amazon’s strategic timing positions the event closer to traditional back-to-school shopping periods, when families typically increase spending on educational supplies and technology.
Retailers beyond Amazon are capitalizing on the Prime Day phenomenon, with many launching competing promotions during the same timeframe. This industry-wide participation has transformed what began as an Amazon-exclusive event into a broader e-commerce moment that benefits retailers across multiple platforms and categories.
The forecast reflects broader trends in digital commerce, where consumers increasingly rely on online channels for major purchases. Mobile shopping continues to gain prominence, with smartphones and tablets driving nearly half of all online transactions during major shopping events. Social media platforms and influencer marketing are also playing expanded roles in directing consumers to retail websites during promotional periods.
Prime Day’s evolution from a 24-hour flash sale to a four-day event demonstrates how retailers are adapting to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures. The extended format reduces the urgency that previously characterized the event while providing more opportunities for retailers to showcase inventory and for consumers to comparison shop across different brands and categories.
The timing of this year’s Prime Day also coincides with peak summer shopping patterns, as families prepare for autumn activities and the upcoming school year. Amazon has positioned the event to capture both immediate summer needs and forward-looking purchases for fall, maximizing the appeal across diverse consumer segments.
Traditional retail metrics suggest that the four-day Prime Day event could generate online sales volume equivalent to multiple Black Friday shopping days compressed into a single week. This concentration of e-commerce activity provides retailers with valuable data about consumer preferences and purchasing patterns that inform inventory planning and marketing strategies for the remainder of the year.
The growth projections come as the broader retail sector navigates ongoing economic uncertainties, including potential tariff impacts and shifting consumer spending priorities. Despite these challenges, the robust forecast for Prime Day indicates sustained consumer appetite for discount shopping events and continued confidence in online retail channels as primary shopping destinations.